Bitcoin Research Dashboard
Bitcoin valuation, market positioning, macro conditions and extended research context across thirteen pages. All figures are computed from the daily public snapshot. All figures are computed in the browser from a daily public snapshot.

This page computes its figures in the browser from the daily snapshot, so it needs JavaScript to show them. The underlying data is public and needs no JavaScript to read: akpasz.github.io/btc-data/data/, documented at github.com/akpasz/btc-data. The methods are readable without scripts at /tools/methods.

Research · Tools

Bitcoin Research Dashboard

Bitcoin's valuation and market state, in one view. Three valuation lenses, market positioning, cycle context, miners and tested signals, updated from the latest daily snapshot. Each card links to the underlying research, methodology and historical record.

Connecting

Snapshot status loading

This page is the terminal: every reading the snapshot publishes, side by side, with data provenance underneath. If you want the shorter question answered instead — is Bitcoin dear or cheap against its own history, and what has followed from readings like today’s — read Where Things Stand.

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Reading the daily KPI snapshot.

Where things stand today

Three valuation lenses combined into one historical state, plus what the site's tests support today. The full page is the first stop: Where Things Stand.

READS AS

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COMPOSITE

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Loading the composite.

What changed since yesterday and a week ago

Only the readings that moved, from the daily history file. Subscribe to the same information as a feed: changes.atom (no signals, one entry per snapshot).

Reading	Now	Previous snapshot	Change	Seven days ago	Change

Start here

Thirteen pages, one order that makes sense.

FIRST VISIT

Where Things Stand — the state, its base rates, and what the evidence supports.
The lens your question needs: valuation, flows, macro, cycle or relative value.
Test the signals: Technical Signals and the Indicator Autopsy, where the popular signals and the bubble model are scored against a random day.

COMING BACK

The What changed panel above: only the readings that moved, since yesterday and since a week ago.
The state strip: has the composite changed band?
The Methods changelog, dated, for anything corrected since your last visit.

HOW TO READ ANY PAGE

Each page is one lens. Its assumptions are stated, its readings are computed from a public daily snapshot, and its historical record is evaluated against a defined baseline. Nothing here is a recommendation; where the evidence establishes nothing, the page says so. The readings are separate observations, not votes — and not independent of one another; the evidence-dependence panel below says which overlap.

Price against three valuations

Log scale. Realised price reflects estimated cost basis; Metcalfe value uses a network-size proxy; the power-law model gives the level implied by its fitted relationship with time. Bands show each lens's historical range over its window.

Where the lenses agree

Log deviation of price from each valuation lens, weekly, two years. The lenses carry their own error; this is a summary of them, not a fifth model.

Readings over time

What this dashboard published on each day, from the daily history file.

Evidence dependence: how much the readings overlap

Spearman rank correlation of daily levels since 2019, computed by the pipeline; a level correlation, not a causal or factor-independence test. A high correlation establishes strong association, not that two readings are the same thing; what it does establish is that highly correlated readings should not be treated as independent confirmation. Pairs at or above 0.8 are treated that way here. The valuation lenses and the composite that averages them overlap by construction.

Valuation, three lenses

Metcalfe Value

Valuation from users. Two calibrations of the same law are shown; neither is a target.

Reference (2011, published-comparable)

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Validated (2017)

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Price / reference

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Percentile

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Price / validated

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Open tool

Power Law

Model-implied level in time

Model-implied level

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Price / model-implied level

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Percentile

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Open tool

Realised Value

What holders paid

Realised price

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MVRV

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Z-score

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Open tool

Market state

Flows and Positioning

Capital and leverage

Positioning

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Funding, annualised

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Stablecoins

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Indicator	Latest	Percentile

Open tool

Thesis status

Stated rules evaluated on today's readings. No score, no weights. Each row names its rule; the last block says what would change it.

These rules are independent observations, not votes. No score is computed and the number of favourable readings has no defined meaning; where they disagree, the disagreement is the information.

Dimension	Rule	Reading	Status

Model agreement

Where the three valuation lenses place price on their own histories. Divergence is uncertainty, not a signal.

Cycle, miners and volatility

Extended indicators computed daily from the same snapshot, at daily close. Percentiles over the window from 2017 unless stated. Descriptive, not signals; each carries the caveat in its note.

Technical Signals →

Indicator	Latest	Percentile	Note

Signal	Bucket today	Median 365-day return from this bucket, 2017 on	Days

Data and provenance

Every source in the snapshot, its status, last date and freshness: a fetch can succeed and still carry stale data

Source	Status	Last date	Freshness	Used by

How this dashboard is built

Once a day the snapshot job computes each tool's headline reading at its validated default specification and writes it, with its historical range, to a KPI file. This page reads that file and re-prices the readings that depend on price against the live Coinbase spot: the Metcalfe premium, the power law deviation, MVRV and its Z-score. Everything else is what the tool page would show, and the tool page is one click away with the full method, validation and audit.

What it is not

Not a price target and not investment advice. The valuation lenses carry about 50 log points of one-year error (the current figure is in each card); the positioning composite describes crowding, not timing. Four cycles is a small sample. Questions and corrections: contact@cryptoexponentials.com.

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Where things stand today

What changed since yesterday and a week ago

Start here

Price against three valuations

Where the lenses agree

Readings over time

Evidence dependence: how much the readings overlap

Metcalfe Value

Power Law

Realised Value

Flows and Positioning

Thesis status

Model agreement

Cycle, miners and volatility

Data and provenance

How this dashboard is built

What it is not