Bitcoin Relative Value Monitor
What one bitcoin buys of gold, silver, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, ether and Solana since inception; calendar-year winners; rotation rules tested against holding at three lookbacks; and the rolling correlation regime. Figures are computed in the browser from the daily snapshot; the data itself is plain JSON at akpasz.github.io/btc-data/data/.

Research · Relative Value

Bitcoin Relative Value

What Bitcoin buys relative to other assets. Bitcoin is compared with gold, silver, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, ether and Solana using historical price ratios. The page also tests simple rotation rules at three lookbacks, so one favourable parameter cannot become the headline, and shows how Bitcoin's relationship with other assets changes over time.

Connecting

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Reading the daily snapshot.

WHAT THE MEASUREMENTS SAY

One bitcoin buys, in gold

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One bitcoin buys, in S&P 500

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Trading like

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Ether in bitcoin

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Solana in bitcoin

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Bitcoin share of crypto

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What one bitcoin has bought, since inception

Monthly, log scale. Ounces of gold and units of the S&P 500 per bitcoin; silver where the source is available. The steepness is the story; the compression of the last two years is the other story.

Who won each calendar year

The ratio at year end against the previous year end. A year goes to bitcoin when it gained on the denominator, to the denominator when it did not.

Year	vs gold	vs S&P 500	vs ether

Rotation rules, tested at three lookbacks

Monthly rebalancing, 0.2% per switch, no tax. Momentum holds bitcoin when the ratio is above its trailing average and the denominator otherwise; mean reversion does the opposite. Three lookbacks are shown because a single one would be a choice, and the choice turns out to decide the result.

What Bitcoin is trading like

Two time scales, because they disagree. The chart is the rolling 24-month correlation of monthly returns with gold and with the S&P 500, from 2012, both on identical footing. The strip reading is the rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns, which is more current and more volatile, and exists for gold only since tokenised gold listed on Coinbase in May 2025.

Inside crypto

Ether and Solana priced in bitcoin, daily, log scale. Rising means the altcoin is gaining on bitcoin; Solana's history is one cycle and is shown as a reading, not tested.

Method

Long-history denominators are monthly averages: gold and silver from the World Bank Commodity Markets “Pink Sheet” (public domain; gold falls back to the datahub mirror of the same series if the World Bank file is unavailable), and the S&P 500 from Robert Shiller's monthly series (public domain, mirrored on GitHub), used alone for the long ratio so that a partial current month from the daily feed cannot sit beside full-month averages; FRED's daily closes serve the correlation panel. Bitcoin is the monthly mean of the daily close over the same months, so both sides of every long ratio are like-for-like averages. Daily denominators for the recent period are Coinbase Exchange closes for ether, Solana and tokenised gold (PAXG) and FRED daily closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq; the correlation panel uses these. Every source is keyless and named per series in the snapshot's provenance block.

Rotation tests rebalance monthly on the prior month's ratio against its trailing mean over 6, 12 or 24 months, charge 0.2% per switch, ignore tax, and report the ending multiple and maximum drawdown from two start dates. The number of switching events is the count of times the ratio crossed its trailing mean, and it is stated beside each table because that, not the number of months, is the sample. The events are not independent draws: consecutive crossings share the same trend episode.

What this page tells you, and what it does not

Claimed: these are the historical records of each ratio and each rule, reproducible from the snapshot. Not claimed: that any rotation rule is a strategy. The clearest result on this page is that the answer depends on the lookback, which is what specification search looks like from the inside; the page shows all three so the reader can see it rather than be shown the one that worked. On the data to 2 September 2026, mean-reversion rotation — buying whichever side has lagged, the logic behind every “alt season” narrative — trails holding under every lookback tested.

Sources: the Crypto Exponentials daily snapshot (Blockchain.com price; World Bank Commodity Markets; FRED; Coinbase Exchange). Nothing here is investment advice.