Does MVRV above 3.7 mark the cycle top?
When market value exceeds realised value by more than 3.7 times, the market is at a cycle top.
This rule has fired 5 times. A 40% fall followed within a year on 1 of the 5. On comparable days when it did not fire, a 40% fall followed 28.0% of the time.
| Times it fired | 5 | separate occasions, not days |
|---|---|---|
| What followed | 20.0% | a 40% fall within 365 days of that close |
| Happened anyway | 28.0% | comparable days when the rule did not fire |
| Difference | -8.0 pts | near zero means the signal added nothing |
Where the claim comes from
A widely repeated threshold from on-chain analysis, usually presented with the historical tops marked on a chart.
How we tested it
Trigger: MVRV above 3.7. Scored as a top rule: 40% fall within 365 days.
Only days the rule could have fired are counted. Consecutive triggers within 90 days are one occasion. The baseline excludes each trigger and the 90 days after it, because the aftermath of a signal is not a fair comparison. No verdict is given below 20 occasions.
What the numbers say
Five occasions, 20.0% followed by a 40% fall against a 28.0% baseline. Below the threshold for a verdict, and the point estimate is negative anyway.
What this does not mean
Five occasions tells you nothing either way. The negative sign is not evidence against the rule any more than a positive one would be evidence for it.
What would change the answer
Many more cycles, or a continuous formulation rather than a threshold.
If you cannot time it, the question changes
Most of the claims in this registry cannot be shown to beat a coin flip, and several are worse than one. That is not an argument against holding bitcoin. It is an argument that the decision worth spending effort on is how much to hold, not when to buy.
We are building that second tool. Until it is here, the Where Things Stand page gives the valuation state and what has historically followed readings like today's, with the sample size attached.
Recomputed from the daily public snapshot by fetch/scorecard.py and published as scorecard.json. Method on the methods page; every claim in the scorecard.