Is a Mayer multiple above 2.4 an overheated market?
Price at 2.4 times its 200-day average indicates an overheated market due to correct.
This rule has fired 8 times. A 40% fall followed within a year on 2 of the 8. On comparable days when it did not fire, a 40% fall followed 26.3% of the time.
| Times it fired | 8 | separate occasions, not days |
|---|---|---|
| What followed | 25.0% | a 40% fall within 365 days of that close |
| Happened anyway | 26.3% | comparable days when the rule did not fire |
| Difference | -1.3 pts | near zero means the signal added nothing |
Where the claim comes from
Trace Mayer's ratio, with 2.4 chosen as a historically unusual level.
How we tested it
Trigger: price / 200DMA above 2.4. Scored as a top rule: 40% fall within 365 days.
Only days the rule could have fired are counted. Consecutive triggers within 90 days are one occasion. The baseline excludes each trigger and the 90 days after it, because the aftermath of a signal is not a fair comparison. No verdict is given below 20 occasions.
What the numbers say
Eight occasions, 25.0% against a 26.3% baseline. Essentially no difference, on a sample too small to detect one anyway.
What this does not mean
The threshold was chosen by looking at history, which makes any apparent edge partly circular. Our test cannot correct for that.
What would change the answer
More occasions, and a threshold set before rather than after the fact.
If you cannot time it, the question changes
Most of the claims in this registry cannot be shown to beat a coin flip, and several are worse than one. That is not an argument against holding bitcoin. It is an argument that the decision worth spending effort on is how much to hold, not when to buy.
We are building that second tool. Until it is here, the Where Things Stand page gives the valuation state and what has historically followed readings like today's, with the sample size attached.
Recomputed from the daily public snapshot by fetch/scorecard.py and published as scorecard.json. Method on the methods page; every claim in the scorecard.