Does the 2-year moving average mark the accumulation band?
Price below its 2-year moving average marks the accumulation band of the cycle.
This rule has fired 4 times. A doubling followed within a year on 1 of the 4. On comparable days when it did not fire, a doubling followed 44.9% of the time.
| Times it fired | 4 | separate occasions, not days |
|---|---|---|
| What followed | 25.0% | a doubling within 365 days of that close |
| Happened anyway | 44.9% | comparable days when the rule did not fire |
| Difference | -19.9 pts | near zero means the signal added nothing |
Where the claim comes from
A cycle-framing tool usually shown with a multiplier band above it.
How we tested it
Trigger: close below the 2-year SMA. Scored as a bottom rule: doubling within 365 days.
Only days the rule could have fired are counted. Consecutive triggers within 90 days are one occasion. The baseline excludes each trigger and the 90 days after it, because the aftermath of a signal is not a fair comparison. No verdict is given below 20 occasions.
What the numbers say
Four occasions, 25.0% followed by a doubling against 45.0%. Negative, on four observations, so it says nothing.
What this does not mean
Our test uses the plain average, not the multiplier bands the rule is usually drawn with. That is a real limitation of this specification.
What would change the answer
Testing the band version, which is what most people actually use.
If you cannot time it, the question changes
Most of the claims in this registry cannot be shown to beat a coin flip, and several are worse than one. That is not an argument against holding bitcoin. It is an argument that the decision worth spending effort on is how much to hold, not when to buy.
We are building that second tool. Until it is here, the Where Things Stand page gives the valuation state and what has historically followed readings like today's, with the sample size attached.
Recomputed from the daily public snapshot by fetch/scorecard.py and published as scorecard.json. Method on the methods page; every claim in the scorecard.