Where Things Stand
Where price sits against its own history on three lenses, the historical distribution of what followed comparable readings with block-bootstrap intervals, and what would change the reading.

This page computes its figures in the browser from the daily snapshot, so it needs JavaScript to show them. The underlying data is public and needs no JavaScript to read: akpasz.github.io/btc-data/data/, documented at github.com/akpasz/btc-data. The methods are readable without scripts at /tools/methods.

Research · Context

Where Things Stand

Where Bitcoin sits in its own history across three valuation lenses, and what historically followed from similar readings. The page shows the historical outcomes, their sample sizes, and where the evidence fails to establish a reliable direction.

Connecting

This page answers one question: where price sits against its own record, and what has historically followed from comparable readings. For every individual metric the snapshot publishes — valuation models, flows, options, mining, provenance — go to the Dashboard.

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Reading the daily snapshot.

Regulatory notice

Crypto Exponentials is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial planner, and nothing on this page is investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any asset. Everything below is a description of historical data. Historical outcomes are not forecasts; Bitcoin has fallen more than eighty per cent from a high on several occasions and may do so again, including from any state described here. You are responsible for your own decisions and should consult a qualified professional who knows your circumstances.

If you came here to decide whether to buy, sell or hold

This page will not tell you which. It will tell you what the evidence supports today, and the four steps below are the honest way to use it.

Read the evidence brief below, literally. It answers the three questions you actually have — is there evidence to add, to reduce, to hedge — each with a strength. Loading today's readings.
Know what a fall of half would do to you. Every cycle on record contained one; the Cycle Monitor shows them. Whether such a fall would force a sale is a fact about your position, not about the market, and no reading on this site changes it.
Check whatever brought you here against its record. If it was an RSI reading, a Pi Cycle chart, a bubble call or a moving-average cross, the Technical Signals and Indicator Autopsy pages show what it did after every previous trigger, against a random day. Most did nothing. The record of that signal against a random day is on those pages.
Then decide — and it will still be yours. Buy, sell or hold is your situation multiplied by the evidence: horizon, size, tax, and what a fall would do to you. This site can only supply the evidence. It treats holding as a decision with evidence for and against it, not as what you do when nothing fires.

All three together

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Against what holders paid

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Against its 200-day average

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Against its power-law model level

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The current state, and the three lenses behind it

The state is a classification of where price sits against its own history, not a view about what happens next.

VERY CHEAP
CHEAP
AVERAGE
EXPENSIVE
VERY EXPENSIVE

▲

        cheapest day on recordthe middledearest day on record
      

The five states are bands on the same historical scale. Very cheap is the lowest 10% of readings, cheap the next 20%, average the middle 40%, expensive the next 20%, and very expensive the highest 10%. These labels describe where today's reading sits in history. They do not predict what happens next.

Measure	What it compares	Where it sits	Reads as

Evidence brief: what the tests support today

Not a recommendation. The questions a holder actually asks, each answered with what the tests on this site establish and how strong that evidence is. Most days they establish nothing in any direction, and the brief says so.

Question	What the evidence says today	Strength

Strength is assigned by a rule, not by judgment: strong means the site's bootstrap interval excludes zero in that direction; moderate means the historical difference is large but the sample is small or overlapping; weak means a directional result with a known failure record; none means the tests establish no reliable direction. Which question applies to you depends on horizon, position size, tax, and whether a fall of half would force you out — none of which this page can see.

Market phase, and what it can and cannot tell you

The everyday question is whether this is a bull or a bear market. That is answerable, because it describes what price has already done. Whether the answer helps is a separate question, and the record below answers it too.

Phase	From	To	Days	Price change over the phase

A drawdown is declared when price closes more than 25% below its highest close to date, and released only once it recovers to within 10% of that high; between those two levels the previous label stands. Outside a drawdown the phase is an advance when the 200-day trend in log price is rising and sideways when it is not. The two thresholds are round numbers fixed once, not values searched for; the gap between them exists because a single threshold reclassifies the market every few days as price crosses it, and the episode count with and without that gap is recorded in the methods page.

What historically followed each state

Every day since 2013 classified by the same rule, then the distribution of returns that followed. Each cell shows the median, the tenth-to-ninetieth percentile spread of individual outcomes, and a ninety per cent moving-block bootstrap interval for the median itself. The intervals are robustness estimates under the stated dependence structure, not model-based probabilities. Where that interval excludes zero it is marked; where it does not, the state carries no reliable directional information.

State	Observations	90 days after	180 days after	365 days after	Worst year from this state

The composite through time

Price on a log scale with the composite position beneath it. The bands are the state cuts, drawn so the eye can see how long each state has historically persisted.

What would change the reading

The thresholds, in today's terms, that would move each lens into the next state. Levels update with the data; they are arithmetic, not opinion.

Lens	Now	Would read discount below	Would read premium above

What this page cannot tell you

Method

Three lenses are ranked as percentiles against their own history: MVRV from Coin Metrics, the Mayer multiple (price over its 200-day average) and the deviation of price from a power law in time since the genesis block. Each percentile is computed as of that day against prior observations only, with at least 250 prior days required, so no reading uses information that was unavailable at the time. The composite is an equal-weight descriptive average of the three, with no weighting chosen by fitting and no optimisation; the state cuts sit at 10, 30, 70 and 90.

The forward-return columns are simple price changes measured from each qualifying day. Windows overlap heavily, which means the sample is far less independent than the day counts suggest: roughly four cycles of information, not thousands. The bootstrap interval on each median comes from a moving-block bootstrap of the daily calendar series: contiguous stretches of days are drawn from the original time index, the state is applied to the resampled index, and the median is recomputed from whatever qualifying days each draw produced. The number of observations therefore differs between replicates, which is correct, since how often a state occurs is itself uncertain and fixing it would make the interval look tighter than the evidence allows; the block length is the forward horizon itself, capped at a quarter of the sample so that short-lived states still resample meaningfully. The procedure is run under three independent seeds; the interval shown is the widest of the three, and a state is marked as excluding zero only when all three agree that it does. That caution is not decorative: at the one-year horizon the longest-lived state contains only about seven independent blocks, and a mark that moved with the random seed would be worse than no mark at all. This treats the overlap honestly rather than assuming it away, and it is why several states that look decisive on their medians turn out to have intervals straddling zero. The power-law model is fitted as of each day on an expanding window of the data available up to that day, so no classification uses coefficients estimated from later prices; a fit is produced only once five hundred qualifying observations exist. The threshold table takes the quantiles of the same reference distribution the ranking uses, so the levels it prints are the values today's reading would have to reach, not historical observations that happened to rank nearby.

How to read it, and how not to

The useful finding in the table, as of 2 September 2026, is narrow and specific: the very-expensive state has been followed by negative median returns at every horizon, while every other state has produced wide, overlapping outcomes. A reader who takes anything from this page should take that asymmetry, not a signal.

Note in particular that the deepest-discount state has a lower median one-year return than the ordinary cheap state. Nothing here says buying weakness has worked reliably; it says the record is noisy and the sample is small. Sources: the Crypto Exponentials daily snapshot (Blockchain.com price, Coin Metrics MVRV). Nothing on this page is investment advice.