Research · Network Economics
The supply side of the network, from primary data: hash rate and the hash ribbons with every capitulation episode since 2011 backtested, miner unit economics through hashprice and the Puell multiple, and the share of miner revenue coming from fees, which must rise as the subsidy declines if total miner revenue is to be sustained. Computed live in your browser from the daily snapshot.
Reading hash rate, fees and issuance from the daily snapshot.
| Capitulation | Length | Recovery signal | Price | 90d | 180d | 365d |
|---|
| Bucket | Median 365-day return | Days |
|---|
Hash rate is the Blockchain.com estimate in TH/s, shown in EH/s; the ribbons are simple 30- and 60-day averages (Edwards, 2019) with no price filter. A capitulation episode is a contiguous run of the 30-day average below the 60-day lasting at least seven days; flickers shorter than that are ignored and the rule is stated here so it can be checked. Hashprice is issuance plus fees in dollars divided by hash rate. The Puell multiple uses Coin Metrics issuance value. Fee share is fees over fees plus issuance. Forward returns are simple price changes from the recovery-signal close.
Claimed: the historical record of each series and of the recovery signal, reproducible from the snapshot. Not claimed: that miner capitulation causes bottoms, or that the recovery signal will keep its record; the two 2021 recoveries and the July 2025 one lost money at a year (as of 2 September 2026), and the table shows them. The hash-rate series is an estimate inferred from block times and difficulty, noisy at short horizons by construction. Fee share is the honest open question of Bitcoin security economics, and this page tracks it rather than resolving it.
Sources: the Crypto Exponentials daily snapshot (Blockchain.com hash rate and fees; Coin Metrics issuance and market cap). Hash ribbons: Charles Edwards, "Hash Ribbons and Bitcoin Bottoms," 2019. Hashprice as a term: Luxor. Puell multiple: David Puell, 2019. Nothing here is investment advice.