Research · Network Economics
Who is buying, how crowded is the market, and how much leverage is present? This page tracks stablecoin supply, derivatives positioning, options, macro conditions, sentiment and holdings-derived ETF flows. It describes the current market regime and tests whether these readings have historically added information about future returns.
Reading the daily snapshot: stablecoins, derivatives, macro, sentiment.
A combined measure of funding, open interest relative to market cap, and Fear & Greed, each ranked against its own history. Higher readings indicate a more crowded and levered market; lower readings a less crowded one. These components overlap, so this is one descriptive crowding gauge, not three independent signals.
| Indicator | Latest | Percentile | 30-day change |
|---|
| Indicator | Rank correlation | Days | Reading |
|---|
Overlapping windows; treat as indicative. A relationship in the past describes historical co-movement; it is not evidence of a tradable signal.
| Annualised funding | 90d | 180d | 365d | Days |
|---|
| Series | First | Last | Days | Min | Max | Latest |
|---|
Every series is read from primary public sources through the daily snapshot: stablecoin supply from DefiLlama, funding and implied volatility from Deribit, open interest from OKX, CME open interest from the CFTC commitments report, the dollar index and yields from FRED, sentiment from Alternative.me. Funding is annualised as the 8-hour rate times 1095. Open interest is shown in dollars and, for the composite, as a share of market cap so that it is comparable across cycles.
The composite ribbon is the mean of three percentiles computed over the statistics window: annualised funding, open interest to market cap, and Fear and Greed. It is computed only on days when all three are present; a day with fewer is left blank rather than averaged over the remainder, so the composition never changes silently. It is a positioning gauge, not a valuation: it says how crowded the market is, not what Bitcoin is worth. Valuation is the job of the Metcalfe, power law and realised value monitors.
The correlation table tests whether these readings have historically preceded different outcomes. Each indicator's 30-day change is rank-correlated with the following 90-day return over the window. Most flow and positioning indicators are coincident with price rather than leading it, and the table will usually say so; that is useful to know before treating any of them as a signal.
Descriptive: these are the measured flows and positions from primary sources, with percentiles and history. It does not claim: that any of them forecasts price. Where the correlation table shows information at 90 days, it is weak and in-sample. Funding and open interest change within hours; the snapshot is daily, so this page describes the regime, not the tape.
DefiLlama stablecoin API; Deribit public API (BTC-PERPETUAL funding, DVOL); OKX public API (open interest); CFTC Commitments of Traders (CME bitcoin futures); FRED (DTWEXBGS, DFII10, DFF, DGS10, M2SL); Alternative.me Fear and Greed; Blockchain.com for price history; Coinbase spot. All free, keyless, refreshed daily at 06:15 UTC through the Crypto Exponentials data snapshot; the audit panel shows the fetch time.
Nothing here is investment advice. Positioning can stay crowded for months; percentiles describe where a reading sits, not when it reverses.