Bitcoin Cycle Monitor
Four halving cycles indexed from their halving day, the diminishing multiples, and the drawdown record. Four windows is the entire sample.

This page computes its figures in the browser from the daily snapshot, so it needs JavaScript to show them. The underlying data is public and needs no JavaScript to read: akpasz.github.io/btc-data/data/, documented at github.com/akpasz/btc-data. The methods are readable without scripts at /tools/methods.

Research · Market Structure

Bitcoin Cycle Monitor

The halving cycles, compared honestly. Each cycle is aligned to its halving date so prices can be compared at the same number of days since the halving. The page shows each cycle's peak, multiple, drawdowns and current position. Four completed cycles are the entire historical sample.

Connecting

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Reading the daily snapshot.

Days since halving 4

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Multiple this cycle

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Prior cycles at this day

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All-time high

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Drawdown from high

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Days below the high

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Four cycles, one axis — and four is the entire sample

Price indexed to 1 at each halving, log scale, against days since that halving. The compression of the multiples is the diminishing-cycles finding, visible without commentary.

The cycle table

Each cycle's window runs halving to halving (the current one to today). Peak is the highest close inside the window.

Cycle	Price at halving	Highest close in the cycle window	Multiple	Day of peak	Worst drawdown after peak

This cycle compared with earlier cycles

Each prior cycle's multiple at exactly the current day count, and what its window did afterward.

Cycle	Multiple at this day	Highest close in the cycle window it went on to	Peak day

Drawdown from the all-time high

Percent below the running high, full history. Zero is a new high; the depth and length of each trough is the cost of holding through cycles.

Method

Daily closes from the snapshot. Halving dates: 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, 11 May 2020, 20 April 2024; the next is estimated from the 210,000-block cadence and is labelled an estimate. A cycle's window runs from its halving to the next (the current window to today), and the peak is the highest close inside that window — which is why the 2020 row peaks in March 2024 rather than at the November 2021 top the narrative remembers; both are shown in the notes. The overlay chart indexes each cycle to 1.0 at its halving close. Nothing is smoothed.

What this page tells you, and what it does not

These are the historical records of four cycle windows, reproducible from the daily snapshot. The page does not establish that halvings cause the pattern, that four observations define a law, or that diminishing multiples will continue. The halving schedule is public decades in advance, so an efficient market should price it; the honest statement is that the pattern has held loosely for four cycles while weakening each time, and that the 2020 window's high arriving three years after its celebrated top is evidence the rhythm is loosening, not tightening.

Sources: the Crypto Exponentials daily snapshot (Blockchain.com daily price). Nothing here is investment advice.