Is MVRV below 1 a reliable bottom signal?
When MVRV falls below 1 the average holder is under water, which marks a cycle bottom.
This rule has fired 5 times. A doubling followed within a year on 3 of the 5. On comparable days when it did not fire, a doubling followed 54.9% of the time.
| Times it fired | 5 | separate occasions, not days |
|---|---|---|
| What followed | 60.0% | a doubling within 365 days of that close |
| Happened anyway | 54.9% | comparable days when the rule did not fire |
| Difference | +5.1 pts | near zero means the signal added nothing |
Where the claim comes from
The counterpart to the top threshold, and intuitively appealing: it describes a real economic condition rather than a chart pattern.
How we tested it
Trigger: MVRV below 1. Scored as a bottom rule: doubling within 365 days.
Only days the rule could have fired are counted. Consecutive triggers within 90 days are one occasion. The baseline excludes each trigger and the 90 days after it, because the aftermath of a signal is not a fair comparison. No verdict is given below 20 occasions.
What the numbers say
Five occasions, 60.0% followed by a doubling against 54.9%. A five-point edge on five observations, which is noise.
What this does not mean
The economic story is sound and the sample is not. Both things can be true.
What would change the answer
More cycles. This is among the more plausible rules on the list and it still cannot be evaluated.
If you cannot time it, the question changes
Most of the claims in this registry cannot be shown to beat a coin flip, and several are worse than one. That is not an argument against holding bitcoin. It is an argument that the decision worth spending effort on is how much to hold, not when to buy.
We are building that second tool. Until it is here, the Where Things Stand page gives the valuation state and what has historically followed readings like today's, with the sample size attached.
Recomputed from the daily public snapshot by fetch/scorecard.py and published as scorecard.json. Method on the methods page; every claim in the scorecard.